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衛(wèi)江旗 ，王   猛

（河南省第四地質(zhì)勘查院有限公司 ，河南 鄭州 450001)

摘   要 ：為有效掌握老滑坡復(fù)活成因及其后續(xù)變形特征，基于老滑坡所處地質(zhì)條件 ，先開展其復(fù)活成因分析，再結(jié)合滑坡變形數(shù)據(jù)，通過(guò) IBA- ELM- CT 模型和 M - K 分析實(shí)現(xiàn)其變形預(yù)測(cè)和趨勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià)， 以充分掌握滑坡后續(xù)變形特征。結(jié)果表明：在老滑坡復(fù)活成因分析結(jié)果中，地層巖性、地形地貌及地質(zhì)構(gòu)造是老滑坡復(fù)活的固有因素，降雨和人類工程活動(dòng)是老滑坡復(fù)活的誘發(fā)因素，兩類因素共同作用造成了老滑坡復(fù)活。在滑坡后續(xù)變形研究結(jié)果中，IBA- ELM- CT 模型具有較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度，且據(jù)外推預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，滑坡中部后續(xù)變形速率相對(duì)更大， 即其后續(xù)變形速率趨于增大，后緣與前緣后續(xù)變形減少趨勢(shì) ；同時(shí)，據(jù) M - K 分析結(jié)果 ，滑坡中部始終具變形增加特征，對(duì)應(yīng)后緣 、前緣變形后續(xù)具減小趨勢(shì)， 即其變形趨于穩(wěn)定，此分析結(jié)果與預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果對(duì)比，得到滑坡后續(xù)變形特征分析結(jié)果具有較優(yōu)的一致性，相互佐證了兩類方法的準(zhǔn)確性，為滑坡災(zāi)害防治提供了一定的參考。

關(guān)鍵詞：滑坡 ；復(fù)活成因 ；變形預(yù)測(cè) ；M - K 分析 ；變形趨勢(shì)

中圖分類號(hào)：P642           

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A            

文章編號(hào)： 1005- 8249   (2024)  06- 0161- 07 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.06.029

WEI Jiangqi ,  WANG Meng

(The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Provice Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 ,   China) 

Abstract: In order to effectively grasp the causes of the revival of the old landslide and its subsequent deformation characteristics, based on the geological conditions of the old landslide, an analysis of its revival causes is carried out first. Then, combined with the landslide deformation data, deformation prediction and trend evaluation are achieved through the IBA-ELM-CT model and M-K analysis, in order to fully grasp the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide. The analysis results indicate that in the analysis of the causes of the revival of old landslides, geological lithology, topography, and geological structure are inherent factors for the revival of old landslides, while rainfall and human engineering activities are triggering factors for the revival of old landslides. The combined effect of these two factors leads to the revival of old landslides. In the subsequent deformation research results of landslides, the IBA-ELM-CT model has high prediction accuracy, and according to the extrapolated prediction results, the subsequent deformation rate V2 of DD4 monitoring point is relatively larger, that is, its subsequent deformation rate tends to increase, while the other two monitoring points are the opposite; Meanwhile, according to the M-K analysis results, the middle part of the landslide always shows an increasing deformation trend, while the deformation of the rear and front edges shows a decreasing trend, indicating that their deformation tends to stabilize. Compared with the predicted results, the analysis results of the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide have better consistency, which mutually confirms the accuracy of the two methods and provides a certain reference for landslide disaster prevention and control.

Keywords :  landslide;  the  cause of resurrection;  deformation prediction;   M - K analysis;  deformation trend

作者簡(jiǎn)介： 衛(wèi)江旗  (1989—) ,  男，本科，工程師，研究方向：地質(zhì)礦產(chǎn)及地質(zhì)環(huán)境修復(fù)。

收稿日期：2023- 08- 24