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周    直 ， 周    鑫

（ 重慶交通大學(xué) 經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院 ，重慶 400074)

摘   要：為準(zhǔn)確評(píng)價(jià)橋梁深水基礎(chǔ)大直徑雙壁鋼圍堰施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，針對(duì)其評(píng)價(jià)中模糊性 、隨機(jī)性、不確定性等特點(diǎn) ，構(gòu)建基于最優(yōu)云熵改進(jìn)云模型與改進(jìn)證據(jù)理論的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型 。依據(jù)研究文獻(xiàn)與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)范，從人、 物 、管理 、環(huán)境 、技術(shù)維度建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；基于博弈論思想 ，運(yùn)用改進(jìn)群組 G1 法與改進(jìn) CRITIC 法確  定指標(biāo)權(quán)重；借助最優(yōu)云熵改進(jìn)云模型構(gòu)建基本概率分配函數(shù)，引入沖突系數(shù) 、Jousselme 距離 、Pignistic 概率  距離與 Tanimoto 測(cè)度衡量證據(jù)沖突程度并修正證據(jù)源，再采用改進(jìn)證據(jù)理論融合專家基本概率分配，且依據(jù)非對(duì)稱貼近度原則確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。上述模型應(yīng)用于豐都長(zhǎng)江二橋 2# 、3#主墩施工，其評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果與工程實(shí)際相符， 驗(yàn)證了該模型在雙壁鋼圍堰施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中的有效性。

關(guān)鍵詞 ：深水基礎(chǔ) ；雙壁鋼圍堰 ；改進(jìn)云模型 ；改進(jìn)證據(jù)理論 ；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)

中圖分類號(hào) ：U445 . 55+ 6           

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼 ：A            

文章編號(hào) ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0092- 08

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 016

ZHOU Zhi ,  ZHOU Xin

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract：In order to accurately evaluate the construction safety risk of large diameter double-wall steel confferdam for bridge deepwater foundation, the risk assessment model is established based on the improved cloud model with optimal cloud entropy and the improved evidence theory, aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty in the assessment process. According to the research literature and standards, the risk assessment index system is established from five dimensions of human, material, management, environment and technology. Based on the game theory, the improved group G1 method and the improved CRITIC method are used to determine the comprehensive weight of each index. With the optimal cloud entropy to improve the cloud model, the basic probability assignment function is constructed, then the conflict coefficient, Jousselme distance, Pignistic probability distance and Tanimoto measure are introduced to measure the evidence conflict and correct the evidence. After that, the improved evidence theory is used to integrate the basic probability assignment of experts, and the risk level is determined according to the principle of asymmetric closeness. The above model is applied to the construction of the 2# and 3# main piers of the Second Yangtze River Bridge in Fengdu. The assessment results are consistent with the actual engineering, which verifies the effectiveness of the model in the construction safety risk assessment of double-wall steel cofferdam.

Keywords：deepwater foundation；double-wall steel confferdam；improved cloud model；improved evidence theory；risk assessme

作者簡(jiǎn)介 ：周直  (1958—) ,  男 ，博士，教授，研究方向 ：工程項(xiàng)目管理 、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。

通信作者 ：周鑫  (1998—) ,  男 ，碩士研究生，研究方向 ：工程項(xiàng)目管理 、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 07-29