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王    猛 ¹  , 王榮榮¹ , 史     帥²

( 1. 河南省地質礦產勘查開發局第四地質勘查院 ，河南 鄭州 450000;

2. 國家管網集團北方管道有限責任公司鄭州輸油氣分公司 ，河南 鄭州 450000)

摘   要： 為合理評價堆積層滑坡的穩定性，該文基于滑坡地質條件及發育特征，先利用傳遞系數法開展滑坡穩定性的初步分析，再結合變形監測成果，通過變權重組合預測模型實現其變形預測，以分析其穩定性的后續發展趨勢，進而綜合實現滑坡穩定性評價。實例分析表明： 滑坡變形特征較為顯著，且在傳遞系數法的分析結果中，在天然工況條件下，滑坡均處于穩定狀態，但在不利工況條件下，尤其在暴雨工況條件下，穩定性系數范圍為 1. 04~ 1. 09 , 屬欠穩定～基本穩定狀態，即不利工況條件下，滑坡存在較大失穩風險； 同時，變權組合 預測模型在滑坡變形預測結果中具有較小的相對誤差均值及方差值，即預測效果較優，且滑坡后續預測速率與現有速率相當，其中 ，1#監測點和 2#監測點的預測速率還相對略大，說明滑坡穩定性將趨于減弱 。通過本文研究，為堆積層滑坡提供了一種穩定性評價方法，值得進一步推廣應用研究。

關鍵詞： 堆積層滑坡； 傳遞系數法； 變權重組合預測； 變形預測； 穩定性評價

中圖分類號： P642      

文獻標志碼： A      

文章編號： 1005-8249 (2023) 04-0134-07

DOI : 10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005-8249.2023.04.022

WANG Meng¹ , WANG Rongrong¹ , SHI Shuai²

( 1. The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Geology and Mineral Bureau , Zhengzhou 450000 , China;

2. National Pipe Network Group North Pipeline Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou Oil and Gas

Transportation Branch , Zhengzhou 450000 , China)

Abstract: In order to reasonably evaluate the stability of the accumulation landslide, based on the geological conditions and development characteristics of the landslide, this paper first uses the transfer coefficient method to carry out the preliminary analysis of the landslide stability, and then combined with the deformation monitoring results, realizes its deformation prediction through the variable weight combination prediction model to analyze the subsequent development trend of its stability, and then comprehensively realizes the landslide stability evaluation. The case analysis shows that the deformation characteristics of the landslide are relatively significant, and in the analysis results of the transfer coefficient method, the landslide is in a stable state under the natural conditions, but under the adverse conditions, especially under the rainstorm conditions, the stability coefficient ranges from 1.04 to 1.09, which belongs to an under stable to basically stable state, that is, under the adverse conditions, the landslide has a greater risk of instability; At the same time, the variable weight combination prediction model has small relative error mean value and variance value in the landslide deformation prediction results, that is, the prediction effect is better, and the subsequent prediction rate of landslide is equivalent to the existing rate. Among them, the prediction rate of 1 # monitoring point and 2 # monitoring point is relatively large, indicating that the landslide stability will tend to weaken. Through this study, it provides a stability evaluation method for accumulation landslide, which is worthy of further application and research.

Keywords: landslide of accumulation layer; transfer coefficient method; variable weight combination forecasting; deformation prediction; stability evaluation

?基金項目： 河南省國土資源廳 2018 年度省財政地質科研項目（ 豫國土資發〔2018〕98 號-12) 。

作者簡介： 王猛  (1988—) , 男，本科，工程師，主要研究方向： 地質災害防治 、工程地質 、環境地質 、生態修復勘查設計治 理 、地質礦產勘查。

收稿日期： 2023-04-1 1